Analysis of Risk Origin in P2P Crowdlending: Beyond the Platform

Introduction

The debate in Crowdlending, also known as P2P lending, often focuses on comparing platforms, but the main risk lies with the originators – the entities that actually issue the loans – and the financial structures they use. Based on the analysis of more than 50 active originators in the European market that we conduct at Carlia Consulting, this study reveals systematic patterns we have identified during our 5 years applying the SPI methodology.

Originator Migration: Documented Systemic Risk

We have documented cases like that of a Baltic originator that showed a recurring pattern: it started with default rates above 8% on one platform, was delisted, and reappeared months later on another platform with a new name but the same problems. It finally disappeared leaving €2.3 million in unpaid loans.

Key warning indicators:

• Frequent changes of company name
• High turnover in board of directors
• Tax addresses in opaque jurisdictions

Our tracking data shows that 68% of delisted originators reappear within twelve months. This is one of the reasons why in our SPI methodology we place so much importance on continuous originator tracking.

Product Engineering: Complex Structures

We analyzed cases where originators use special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to transform risky loans into apparently safe products. In one documented structure:

• The originator transferred high-risk loans to an SPV
• Investors bought “notes” from the SPV, not direct loans
• Coverage was only 1.8% compared to historical default rate of 7.2%

These structures create legal barriers that make fund recovery difficult in case of default. Precisely for this reason, in our Consulting Services we help investors identify these opaque structures.

Professional Due Diligence Methodology

Operational History

Verify minimum of 3 complete credit cycles. Analyze the management team’s track record and presence on multiple platforms.

Financial Transparency

Require audited reports from recognized firms. Review key ratios:

• Provision coverage >3% of portfolio
• NPL ratio <5% in last 24 months

Credit Quality

Evaluate underwriting policies and scoring methodologies. Prefer originators with external validation by specialized entities.

Guarantee Funds: The Reality of the Numbers

Analysis of public reports reveals that many platforms operate with insufficient coverage ratios. One analyzed platform maintained a 1.2% fund while its historical default rate during crises reached 4-7%.

This means that in stress scenarios, funds only cover 15-30% of potential losses. It’s crucial to evaluate:

• Recapitalization mechanisms
• Activation triggers
• Legal architecture of the fund

Strategies for the Investor 2026-2027

Basic Due Diligence

• Require complete financial reports from originators
• Verify management team history in public records
• Analyze correlations between originators in your portfolio

Key Questions for Platforms

• “What percentage of your originators publishes audited statements?”
• “What is your policy for delisting problematic originators?”
• “Can you demonstrate complete traceability to the end borrower?”

Expanded Checklist

• Request specific terms of guarantee funds
• Verify auditor independence
• Analyze real geographical concentration of loans

Do You Need Professional Help?

If this analysis seems complex to implement, at Carlia Consulting we can help you. Through our Fiverr consulting service, we offer:

• Personalized analysis of your current portfolio applying the SPI methodology
• Selection of platforms and originators based on professional due diligence
• Real diversification strategy not only across platforms, but across solid originators

Our methodology, tested over 5 years and with more than €1 million of own capital invested in more than 50 platforms, has managed to avoid losses from platform or originator bankruptcies for both us and our clients.

To learn more about the SPI methodology that has enabled these results, visit our complete guides:

• Why I created the SPI method after losing €50,000
• The SPI Method: The definitive guide to safe crowdlending investing
• How to apply the SPI method in crowdlending

Platforms Where I Personally Invest

These are affiliate links where you will receive a bonus on your first investments (instant cashback, interest bonus for 90 days, etc.). I will also receive a bonus, which helps me continue creating more useful information for readers like you.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crowdlending carries a high risk of capital loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before investing. Regulations and platform policies change frequently.